Ahead Of The Game

Welcome back to Covering The Spread amigos.  Following last weeks message about not jumping on book when they're hot, this week I want to talk about the other side of that coin.  Jumping on books before they get hot.

Of course I'm never going to know for sure when a book is going to get hot, but we can make some educated guesses.  How do we do that?  Well keep reading and I'll tell you!

 

Amazing Spider-Man 365 Cover

Amazing Spider-Man 365

Here's my first pick for a book that will be getting hot in the future.  Why?  Because it already happened.  Spoilers for Spider-Verse I guess, but it's Netflix now just go watch it.

The post-credits scene in Spider-Verse teased Spider-Man 2099 for a potential sequel.  The market exploded with a ton of sales on both this and issue one of his main series.  So why buy it now?  Well there's a new Spider-Man movie in theaters and the market is busy speculating on that post credits scene.  So while everyone is speculating you can confidently buy this book, knowing that given the success of the previous film sequels will be made.

 

Average Raw Price 6.12
10 Copies 61.21
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Selling Fees 69
Total Costs 410.21

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price 9.2  Price
162 55 42 33
2 Copies 3 Copies 4 Copies 1 Copy Total Value
324 165 168 33 690

Talk about cheap spec!  Our upfront investment should be $341.21 and we expect profits of $279.79.  That's a spread of +27.98 and an ROI of almost 82%!  Pretty nice returns for such a cheap book.
I will say that this book might be hard to get a 9.8 in because the cover shows damage very easily, but it's also tougher stock than usual, so that might be fine.  This is certainly a book with plenty of copies out there, but hey so is ASM 300.

 

Marvel Super-Heroes Winter Special 8

Yes, really I think Squirrel Girl is going to see some speculation soon.  It didn't get a lot of discussion recently, but marvel recently unveiled a new program that turns some of it's characters into stage plays.  This concept might seem ridiculous, but the choices of characters are what really interest me.  One play is about Thor and Loki which makes sense given their popularity.  The others center around Ms. Marvel, and Squirrel Girl.  This shows the company is interested in pushing this character more.  That should create more interest in her first appearance.

 

Average Raw Price 87.24
10 Copies 872.36
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Pressing Fees (EST) 120
Selling Fees  216.30
Total Costs 1488.66

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price
355 166 134
3 Copies 5 Copies 2 Copies Total Value:
1065 830 268 2163

Right now we have upfront costs, including pressing, of $1272.36 and expect profits of $674.34.  That's a spread of +67.43 and an ROI of almost 53%.  While that isn't quite as high as ASM I still think this is a great character to put some money behind.  I don't expect there to be anywhere near as many high grade copies of this.

 

Moon Knight #25

Moon Knight 25

This is a book that seems on the surface like the longest of longshot spec.  Yet sales are both high and frequent for graded copies.  It almost feel a little fishy to me.  Perhaps someone out there knows something we don't…

At any rate the first appearance of Black Spectre is raking in the dough right now.  But was this one that was on your list?  Recent raw sales suggest no, and this book is an absolute ghost online.

Finding books like this is the other way to get ahead of the market, if graded copies sell well, and raws are hard to find, they might not be on many people's radar.  Doing your research (or reading this article) really helps.

 

Average Raw Price 18.13
10 Copies 181.30
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Pressing Fees (EST) 120
Selling Fees  237.70
Total Costs 819

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price
547 118 73
3 Copies 5 Copies 2 Copies Total Value:
1641 590 146 2377

I will say right off the bat, I don't think these numbers reflect the actual market.  I only found two sales and both of them were an absolute steal.  The only raw copy on eBay is over $100.  However, I do also think this is the kind of books that shops/dealers would have sitting in bins without realizes how expensive they are.

With that said we underestimate costs, including pressing, to be $581.30 and we expect profits of $1558.  That's a spread of +155.80 and an ROI of 268%!

Again I think these prices are a little off base so instead I recommend a target buy in of $60.  That would result in a spread of +113.93 and an ROI of 114%!  I think that is more achievable.

Wrap-Up

Well this weeks big winner was Moon Knight 25, with an ROI of 114%!  Next up, and my favorite investment of the week (it's easier to find) is Amazing Spider-Man 365 with an ROI of 82%.  Taking up the rear was Marvel Super-Heroes Winter Special 8, with a lowly ROI of 53%.

All kidding aside I think all of these are great investments if you can find them, and these numbers show why getting ahead of the game makes such a huge difference.  What under the radar book are you buying right now? Let me know down in the comments!

As always thank you to Comic Collateral for our pricing data, and I'll see you next week!

11 comments

  • Avatar

    That Moon Knight is a classic cover, regardless of anything else.

    • Avatar

      I agree, but Moon Knight is really not a big character. He has the potential and I really like him, but this book is outperforming so many other books it’s crazy to me.

  • Avatar

    The popularity of Moon Knight #25 is the black cover same with #29. Guaranteed you wouldn’t come up with 3 9.8s if you bought 10 copies. You probably would be lucky to find one raw copy that will grade in the 9s. But had no idea Raws are pushing $100 thanks for the info. I think the good future profit in Moon Knight could be in picking up #188 1:25s 1st Sun King for $5-$10. If that one ever panned out as a movie villain your profit margin would be very high.

    • Avatar

      Yeah I think it’s just because they are so hard to find. I think given how many graded copies are selling there must be some nice raws out there, people just need to dig them out.

      • Avatar

        A moon knight 25 raw will run you about $20, but good luck getting a high grade. There’s a ~$400 difference between 9.8 and 9.6. My opinion is 9.6s are undervalued.

  • Avatar

    After WWBN, Moon knights 1, 25, 29 & 30 are all must haves in high grade for the moon knight fan….

    A seller who had hoarded some ASM 365s was selling off graded copies one by one a few months back….grabbed a few 9.6s for $25 ea. Have a nice raw too. Patiently waiting for the moment it pops….

  • Avatar

    I think the biggest mystery is whats the ratio of Moon Knight 25 covers that have the white dot above the hand compared to the one’s that don’t. LOL

  • Avatar

    So, is a 9.8 worth the price, or find a 9.6 at a much cheaper price? Will a 9.6 still go up in price for investors?

  • Mike Morello

    Funny, my under the radar pick for the past year or two had been What-If #10. Not so under the radar, now, I guess. Lol.

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