State of the Market

Hello comic book investors and welcome back to Covering the Spread.  This week, as the title implies I want to take at look at what the speculation market is like right now.  I know that's kind of what I do every week but things are always changing.

 

Incredible Hulk 377 Cover

Incredible Hulk 377

This is a book that went from zero to hero as soon as rumors of Professor Hulk being in Endgame first surfaced.  Of course then we only had rumors but now we know that he was indeed in the movie.  So does that make this a key?  Are collectors always going to be looking for the first appearance of a smart Hulk? Let's look at some numbers and see what they have to say.

 

Average Raw Price 26.19
10 Copies 261.88
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Selling Fees 95.10
Total Costs 636.98

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price 9.2  Price
188 79 73 46
2 Copies 3 Copies 4 Copies 1 Copy Total Value
376 237 292 46 951

This book is a particularly interesting case, and I'll explain why in a moment.  We expect upfront costs of $541.88 and our expected profits are $314.02.  That would be a spread of +31.40 and an ROI of almost 58%.  That's pretty great!  My concern is that since the movie has been released, graded copies seem to be trending down.  But on the other hand raw prices are all over the place.  The highest price I logged for a raw copy was $49.99, almost double the average rate.  On the other end several copies sold for less than half of the average rate.  The market seems really up in the air with this one.  I am going to give this one my seal of approval, but I will say not to spend more than $30.  It may take a little longer but watch the auctions and you'll find some deals.

 

Young Avengers 1

This is another book that is fascinating to me right now.  It is a book that has been speculated on for a long time, and I think for good reason.  Kate Bishop is a cool character and a Young Avengers movie could have some serious potential.  Then back in January it even made an appearance on the Top 10 but again based only on rumors.  Then we had the Avengers:Endgame trailer showing Hawkeye training a young girl.  Now we have even had discussion of a Hawkeye series on Disney Plus that centers around Kate Bishop.

But through all that we still don't have any “real” news.  Spoiler alert, that wasn't Kate Bishop in Endgame.  Despite all the rumors circulating, Marvel has said they will not announce any new movies until after Spider-Man:Far From Home is released.  Plus, despite everything we've been hearing I could not find an official announcement regarding a Hawkeye series.  When you look up Kate Bishop on Marvel.com the news section mentions nothing about TV or movies.

And the funny thing is, I don't think any of that matters.  The market seems to be so driven by speculation at this point that it doesn't even need to be correct.  I'll spell out why I don't think we're getting Young Avengers in phase 4 in the wrap-up, but for now let's look at the numbers for this book.

With Pressing:

Average Raw Price 55.62
10 Copies 556.18
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Pressing Fees (EST) 120
Selling Fees 116.70
Total Costs 952.88

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price
265 106 70
3 Copies 5 Copies 2 Copies Total Value:
795 530 140 1465

We have upfront costs of $836.18 and our profits would be $362.  That's a spread of +36.23 and an ROI of 43%.  Overall pretty nice returns and it's an investment I recommend making.

So here's why I say it doesn't matter if the rumors are true or not.  This book has become a key.  Yes, in today's market they only thing you need to become a key, is enough people spending money on your book.  There are already so many people invested in this issue I don't think prices will go down.

However, I don't think they'll go up either.  9.8s are already selling for $265.  How much higher can they go?  The first appearance of Bucky as The Winter Soldier sells for $149 in 9.8 and he has been integral to the MCU for years.

 

Amazing Spider-Man 265

Alright, here's my proof that it doesn't matter if the rumors are true anymore.  I honestly don't remember how long ago the “Silver and Black” film news came out, but it was a long time ago.  I found an article on the site referencing it back in 2017.  If you haven't been keeping up with the news that movie is DOA.  Supposedly there will still be a Silver Sable movie somewhere down the line from Sony, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Yet, this book is still selling great.  No one cared about Silver Sable before the announcement.  In 2017 9.8 copies were selling for under $200 constantly and now they average $271.  We know the movie was cancelled but everyone is still buying the book?  Have we gone nuts?

With Pressing:

Average Raw Price 32.65
10 Copies 326.51
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Pressing Fees (EST) 120
Selling Fees 148
Total Costs 874.51

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price
271 105 71
3 Copies 5 Copies 2 Copies Total Value:
813 525 142 1480

Let's get nuts!  We have upfront costs of $726.51 and our profits would be $605.49.  That's a spread of +60.55 and an ROI of 83%!  Maybe the news of the movie being cancelled hit the raw prices and no one told the people selling graded copies.  Of course I'm going to recommend this one, with these kind of numbers.  And hey, you never know what might happen after how well Venom and Spider-Verse did for Sony.

Wrap-Up

Okay so I promised I would come back to why I don't think we're getting Young Avengers here.  Disney didn't announce what movies we would be getting, but they did say there would be getting 8 new Marvel movies in the next phase.  I expect those to include:

Black Widow (1)

The Eternals (2)

Doctor Strange 2 (3)

Black Panther 2 (4)

Shang Chi (5)

Captain Marvel 2 (6)

Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (7)

Ant Man and The Wasp 2 (8)

That doesn't leave us any room for a Young Avengers movie.  I think it's far more likely that The Eternals and Shang Chi are considered big enough gambles that Marvel wants to stick to sequels for the rest of this slate.  Not to mention that this is the first solo Black Widow film.  Marvel needs some guaranteed profits and sequels can do that for them.

Anywho, that's all I have for you this week.  Which movies do you think we'll see in phase 4?  Am I crazy to say it doesn't matter if the rumors about Kate Bishop are true?  Let me know what you think in the comments down below!

2 comments

  • Avatar

    When was 377 not a key? Smart Hulk has been perpetually popular with fans of a certain age, and is one of the best known Hulk variants.

    • Avatar

      Last year 9.8s were selling under $100. This year they have sold for well over $200. The difference is astronomical.
      I suppose you could call in a minor key if you’re into that sort of thing

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