Covering the Spread 43: Crystal Ball

Hello CBSI and welcome back to Covering The Spread!  This week I will be using my crystal ball to look into the future.  Right now my crystal ball is telling me to follow three specific trends.  Which trends? Read on to find out!

The first trend I wanted to talk about are optioned indies doing very well in the market.  Look at recent excitement about things like Tank Girl.  But I think many of us get so excited about the announcement that something has been optioned, and then completely forget about it later.  Case in point:

 

Sex Criminals 1:

This is a book that I haven't heard anyone discuss in a long time.  But this was optioned way back in 2015!  But we havent heard much news since then. Jimmy Linguini posited that this was delayed because Universal was afraid that something titled Sex Criminals would not be well received in the midst of the #metoo movement.  But I think the opposite is true.  Outrage marketing is a real thing and the title alone will be enough to get people all worked up.

I still remember when the first trailer for Dear White People was released by Netflix it cause a huge stir.  But once it was released no one was angry anymore.  In fact I was unaware they were making a show (although I really enjoyed the movie) and all the complaints made me want to watch it.

In December of last year Fraction inked a new deal with Legendary Tv to adapt his comics.  Given the fact that so much time had already been spent working on a Sex Criminals adaptation at universal I wouldn't be surprised to hear news of another attempt soon!

Average Raw Price 16.99
10 Copies 169.95
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Selling Fees 29.40
Total Costs 479.35

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price 9.2  Price
69 42 6 6
2 Copies 3 Copies 4 Copies 1 Copy Total Value
138 126 24 6 294

Talk about a cheap investment.  Right now we would have an upfront investment of $449.95 and we would come away with a loss of $185.35.  Those are obviously not good numbers.  But that's because graded copies of this book are so cheap!  You can get a 9.8 for under $70.  And yes a graded 9.4 really did sell for $6.  I know it's not a 9.8 but that's an insanely good price!

Watch the auctions for this book and you can get some great deals.  Especially if this show does get released soon.

 

Marvel Team-Up 141:

Can you believe how long it has been since I recommended a Spider-Man book!  Does this count?  Anyway the other trend I've been seeing is that all things Venom are hot hot hot right now.  Of the 50 best selling modern graded books right now 13 are Venom related (including this issue).  But for some reason this book is not selling anywhere near as well as ASM 252 or Secret Wars 8.  Of course those two have some iconic covers but is the origin of the black costume more important than the first appearance?

Not to mention this book was not respected in the market for a long time.  I have found so many copies that are completely beat.  I still buy them though.  Another tip for everyone, throw in a “reader copy” with your books when you sell them.  A lot of the time you be able to squeeze an extra $5-$10 out of the sale for something that cost you next to nothing.

Anyway this book is much harder to find than either of the other two books mentioned and I think for any Venom fan or Spider-Man fan this is a must have.  Most people just haven't realized it yet.

Average Raw Price 75.05
10 Copies 750.54
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Selling Fees 220.10
Total Costs 1250.64

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price 9.2  Price
559 169 119 100
2 Copies 3 Copies 4 Copies 1 Copy Total Value
1118 507 476 100 2201

These are some nice numbers.  I estimate an upfront investment of $1030.54 and we come away with profits of $950.36!  That's a spread of +95.04 and an ROI of 92%!  I don't think I need to tell you that's a good idea but the even crazier thing is how big of a swing their is on raw prices.  Surprise surprise the ones that go for more money mention Venom in the title.  Never assume that eBay customers (or customers in person) know the significance of a book.  If you don't tell them you're leaving money on the table!

 

invincible-1

Invincible 1:

The other big trend I have been seeing is TV shows on streaming services causing a big buzz.  Keith Shimabukuro (author of the Variant Heat Check) and I have discussed this at length and I think this is the best spec out there right now.  I don't know if Hulu will be as big of an influence as Netflix but if Hit Monkey is any indication I would say yes.

Also I don't know if I have mentioned in this article before but this is the best series of all time.  Feel free to tell me your favorite in the comments below but you're wrong!

Everyone is always looking for the next Walking Dead well why not something else written by the same person?  This book also had a very small print run when it first came out, and gained popularity over the years.  But it never came near the readership of the Walking Dead so if the show does well there will be a sudden influx of collectors interested in this book.

Average Raw Price 438.22
10 Copies 4382.20
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Selling Fees 476.50
Total Costs 5138.70

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price 9.2  Price
911 462 309 321
2 Copies 3 Copies 4 Copies 1 Copy Total Value
1822 1386 1236 321 4765

Well for an upfront investment here I estimate $4662.20 and we would come away with a loss of $373.70.  Not exactly inspiring.  But, again that just means that graded copies are a bargain.  When the announcement was first made about the option you would never see a 9.8 go for less than $1000 and I was surprised to see how low they have dipped.

I recommend everyone watch the auctions for slabbed copies and pick some up while you can afford them.  Even if it's a 9.6.

Wrap-Up

Well everyone that's all I have for you this week.  All kidding aside what's your favorite series? Are there any trends your crystal ball is telling you to follow? Let me know in the comments down below!

12 comments

  • Avatar

    Would be pretty amazing if a Sex Criminals TV show was released soon considering a script was never finished, it was never cast and never filmed.
    The 2015 Universal option expired early last year with Fraction and Milkfed CM Inc. now signed to Legendary. There’s no reason to think this show will come out any time soon or even at all since it hasn’t been green lit or had any news come out that it’s even being discussed at Legendary yet.
    I appreciate these articles and I know they take a lot of work but you should do a little bit of research prior to recommending stuff like this. Jimmy Linguini saying this has been delayed is laughable since it never went into production and the property is no longer even connected to the studio that birthed the original news of this title being optioned.

    • Avatar

      I can appreciate your concerns but I would like to assure you I do plenty of research in advance. I’m sure I can’t post links in the comments here but Fraction’ s company just signed a fresh deal with Legendary Tv in December of 2018. It’s hardly outrageous to hope that we will hear news that another adaptation is in the works soon.

  • Avatar

    Is Marvel Team Up 141 the “actual” first appearance, or isn’t it ASM 252? If 252 hit shelves first, then i really fail to see the value of this book in anyway other than as a curiosity.

  • Avatar

    I think 9.6 & 9.8 graded copies of Invincible #1 are pretty undervalued at the moment.

  • Avatar

    I’m sitting on a few Invincibles. It is an amazing series on it’s own, and the prices that it brings without any show is commendable. I think there is twice the potential here as Walking Dead, but my fear is that if the show isn’t great or wanes in later seasons that it will suffer the same fate as WD. WD #1 used to be the modern non variant book to beat. It’s still a solid book, but subsequent issues are bringing far less than they used to, eg, Michone, Governor, and Jesus first appearances. Those used to be solid investments. The show has suffered from some of the worst writing in history over the past couple seasons, and has affected interest in the books. I’d hate that to happen to Invincible. And with Seth Rogan attached, I am not excited. He should just go smoke weed and leave comics alone.

    • Avatar

      Also, I think it’s an Amazon show which means it will only reach a fraction of the audience it should and could, that includes massive fans like myself since I don’t support Amazon. That should be taken into consideration if folks are factoring the show into it’s investment potential.

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