Covering the Spread 7

Welcome CBSI to another edition of Covering the Spread!  If you have never been here before I'd recommend going back to my 1st article to get the layout of what we do here.  For everyone else after taking a look at this weeks Top 10 I hope everyone bought Hellboy: The Wild Hunt 2 when I recommended it all the way back on July 1st! But anyone can pat themselves on the back when they get things right we're here to make you even more money!

Since we talked last there has been a lot of excitement around the upcoming Venom movie.  Personally I thought the latest trailer was OK at best but it seemed to be good enough to get people to pull out their checkbook.  This week we will be taking a look at the 1st appearances of 3 different symbiotes because I think if this movie ends up being good Sony is going to rush more films into production and all these books will go up in price.

Amazing Spider-Man 569 (2nd Print)

For anyone who doesn't know this is the first appearance of Anti-Venom.  I can't recall anyone really bringing up the possibility of Anti-Venom being in this movie specifically.  However, I do know how executives think and if Venom does well I'd wager they will try to pack even more symbiotes into the next one.  Regardless I think the numbers for this book are interesting and I believe this will be our first ever variant!

Average Raw Price 306.83
10 Copies 3068.26
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Selling Fees 297.39
Total Costs 3645.65

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price 9.0 Av Price
569.57 276.25 209.50 168
2 Copies 3 Copies 4 Copies 1 Copy Total Value
1139.14 828.75 838 168 2973.89

So if anyone isn't already aware, if you ever see raw prices go past the value of a 9.6 copy it's a bad sign.  Generally that would mean raw prices are very inflated.  For this scenario we would have an upfront investment of $3,348.26 (much higher than most books we discuss) and a loss on our investment of $671.76.  That is brutal!  However there are a couple things about this book that I want to discuss.  First of all I only found one completed sale on eBay so I used the current listings as the basis for my average raw prices.  There also has not been a sale for a 9.2 copy so I used a 9.0.  Regardless this is an interesting case but for now I would say you should stay away from this book.  The prices seem to be too unpredictable for me to want to invest.

 

Venom Vs. Carnage 1 and 2

Good golly Miss Molly those are some beautiful covers!  That aside issue 2 is the first appearance of Toxin.  For anyone who hasn't heard of him Toxin is another symbiote who originally bonded with officer Patrick Mulligan (who made is first appearance in Venom vs Carnage 1).  It is only a rumor at this point but IMDB has a character listing for Patrick Mulligan in the Venom movie. If that's true then they are leaving the door open to bring in Toxin at some point.

Honestly though, this entire run is worth picking up because these covers are amazing.  Personally I would recommend buying issue 2 over issue 1.  In general I prefer a first in costume appearance vs 1st civilian appearance but currently issue 1 holds more favor in the market.  I also think issue 2 has the better cover.  Side note if you see anyone listing issue 1  as the first Toxin they are mistaken and you should leverage that to try and get a discount.  At any rate issue 1 has more sales so we will be looking at that today.

Without Pressing:

Average Raw Price 30.99
10 Copies 309.98
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Selling Fees 91.10
Total Costs 680.98

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price 9.2 Av Price
155 85 75 46
2 Copies 3 Copies 4 Copies 1 Copy Total Value
310 255 300 46 911

While not the most impressive numbers I've ever seen, a profit is a profit.  We would have an upfront investment of $589.88 and a profit of $230.01.  That would be a spread of +23 and an ROI of 38%.  These covers are good enough for me to think they're good investments anyway but if the rumors are true I would wager prices will double across the board on both these books.

With Pressing:

Average Raw Price 30.99
10 Copies 309.98
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Pressing Fees (EST) 120
Selling Fees 104
Total Costs 813.88

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price
155 85 75
3 Copies 5 Copies 2 Copies Total Value:
465 425 150 1040

If we include pressing our initial investment goes up to $709.88 and our profits land at $226.11.  That would be a spread of +22.61 and an ROI of 31%.  That means that it's actually not worth it to press these books from an ROI standpoint.  Not very common but it does happen.

 

Amazing Spider-Man 361

Next up we have the first appearance of Carnage!  You probably already knew we were going to talk about this though. This is easily the best known symbiote besides Venom.  It may sound odd to say but I think the biggest point in this books favor is that Carnage won't be in this movie.  Of course that's just speculation at this point but I think it is safe to say that even if he does appear it will only be in a cameo.  I mean how many symbiotes can be in one movie?

Without Pressing:

Average Raw Price 88.69
10 Copies 886.92
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Selling Fees 187.27
Total Costs 1354.19

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price 9.2 Av Price
381.22 165.73 123.83 117.75
2 Copies 3 Copies 4 Copies 1 Copy Total Value
762.44 497.19 495.32 117.75 1872.70

So if we do a little analysis on these numbers we will see that we have an upfront investment of $1,166.92 and profits of $518.51.  That would put the spread at +51.85 and our ROI at 44%.  That's already a great investment but if my speculation is correct and we only see a cameo I think this book is going to skyrocket.  However, if we don't even see a cameo there will be a lot of frustrated speculators dumping their copies.  If that happens whether the movie is good or not YOU NEED TO BUY THEM.  This book is a key and regardless of print run I think collectors are always going to want one.

With Pressing:

Average Raw Price 88.69
10 Copies 886.92
Shipping Fees (EST) 100
Grading Fees (EST) 180
Pressing Fees (EST) 120
Selling Fees 221.99
Total Costs 1508.92

 

9.8 Av Price 9.6 Av Price 9.4 Av Price
381.22 165.73 123.83
3 Copies 5 Copies 2 Copies Total Value:
1143.66 828.65 247.66 2219.97

With Pressing our upfront investment will be $1286.93 and our profits will end up at $711.05.  That would be a spread of +71.11 and an ROI of a whopping 55%!  Obviously that's a great investment already but everything I said earlier still applies!  Be on the lookout for some deals if Carnage is not in this movie, or if it flops.

Well folks that's all I have for you this week!  Thanks as always to Comic Collateral for our prices and a special thanks to CovrPrice as well who also provided some of our pricing.  As always if anyone has suggestions for a theme, or specific book you'd like me to cover I'd love to hear about it in the comments!

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