Outcast #1 (2014) Image Comics

outcast_1As a reminder for new readers, this article focuses on the #1 book of the Hot 10 on www.comicbookinvest.com and we will be looking at what has happened to the market in the week following the announcement of the #1 book. Trends, listings, and sales prices will be tracked from the perspective of both raw and the highest CGC graded books.

Due to the popularity of Outcast, the book was optioned by Cinemax and premiered on June 3, 2016. As stated on the Hot 10, this book was massively over printed, with the 1st print run numbering 86,000 copies. My preliminary thoughts are that this book will see a spike then settle down. The book is going to need a market correction because of the volume produced. It will be inflated for the next couple of months then it will settle into the correct pricing.

Listings

Active:

As of 6/10/16, there are only 400+ active listings on eBay. From these active listings, one quarter of the listings are slabs. Raw values are ranging from the lowest at $30 to the highest being $80. Slabs values are ranging from $250 for a CGC 9.8 Blue Label to $800 for a 9.8 CGC SS Signed by Robert Kirkman and Paul Azaceta.

Sales

Completed:

There have only been 190 completed auctions since 6/10/16 with 30 graded sales. Raw sold listings ranged from $25 for a VF copy to $50 for a NM raw copy. Sold slab listings ranged from $100 to $180.

Market Analysis

The graph below shows the sales for the last 2 years for 9.8 CGC slabs:

image01

Graph provided by GPA Analysis

I think this will die down eventually and go back to a reasonable $25 book in a year or so in the raw state. I think if you have a 9.8 slab this is the one that could see some increased value if you hold on to this book. I would hold on to this book (as Jimmy Linguini stated on the Unpressable Defects podcast) until at least 6 episodes have screened. Then you can assess better whether the book is a long term hold. This is a prime example of striking the fire while it is hot. Those who got books during the week when they came out are having financial success.

12 comments

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    This is a great article for the reason that a lot of people ask, when should I sell?
    I would note that Outcast was the first returnable book from Image, which means two things. 1. That’s why so many were ordered. 2. We don’t have any idea how many were returned.

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    Glad to see this article back. Great book to look at. It will be interesting to see what happens with this one.

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    I enjoyed the article and the leg work you put into it is obvious, but I disagree with you in thinking this book is topping out and will settle at $25. There are obvious setbacks, most notably the high print run and being on Cinemax as opposed to HBO or AMC, but this book still has room to grow. There are plenty of books with 100,000+ that command more money, albeit some have bigger audiences like Batman New 52 #1, but it is possible. The shows audience is almost surely going to increase, too. It’s getting almost universal positive reviews, and has already been green lit for season 2. Plus, with news that HBO/Cinemax have optioned Scarlet, which will likely be a companion show, it appears the company is moving to create an adult-centric, comic-based programming component that they will likely dump increased money into for production and promotion in the future. I’m curious if they are looking to option other properties in near future to further boost this, because a lot of industry people are def watching what AMC is pulling off with Walking Dead/Fear the Walking Dead/Preacher and what Netflix has done with Daredevil/Jessica Jones and in production Luke Cage/IronFist/Punisher and HBO wants a chunk of that market (especially with Game of Thrones likely done after 2 more seasons). It also has a potential boost in appealing to the horror market,?which is the magic combo only Walking Dead has appealed to so far. Side note: I think Image’s Nailbiter would be cheap to produce and could appeal to similar markets. Back to original point… This all will create a wider audience and a net of people continually seeking out Outcast key issues and trades in the future. This will never be a Walking Dead #1, but should become a solid $50-$100 book for years to come. The big issue is, how will the variants fare? A $1 image first went for $10 recently. That’s stupid, but it happened. There are 4 printings of the regular edition not counting that. All 4 have the same art (no alternate covers) with no color deviations that I know of in title graphics or image (which have helped later printings on books like Monstress and the Fix recently or even things like Manhattan Projects a few years ago). Not sure of the print run on these, but no later printings seem to be drawing an audience. I’m curious have the international editions will fare, though, moving forward, because some have an image that is different and I believe was used for a special edition of the volume 1 trade. There is also the SDCC photo variant that features Patrick Fugit from the show sort of recreating the original #1 cover. It seems to be going for a few bucks more than the regular #1 and def has a lower print run. Last, there are the Skybound 5th Anniversary variants from the anniversary box set: color, randomly inserted black and white “sketch cover” (both from SDCC 2015), and the blue-line “sketch cover” that was only sold on Black Friday discretely on the Skybound website. I am not sure of the print run on the color or the black and all white (or if all of the B&W random inserts have been found, but the blue-line was limited to 250, and is a ghost. The sets were $200, while the SDCC were only $80 I believe on initial sale. Most seem to have been bought for personal collections and rarely do Walking Dead or Outcast from the blue-line set pop up online for sale from the set. A 9.8 sold for $310 I believe on eBay in May. I think in the months to come, people will look at that as a steal. I’m going with this as the premiere cover for the book over the more common black & white. People can take their chances hoping prices settle back down between seasons, but I doubt that as word continues to get out about the show (many people are already saying it’s better than Preacher), and especially if they work SDCC and NYCC like they did last year and gear up strong with better promotion for season 2. Just my two sense.

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    The author of this article is absolutely right. Way too many copies of this book out there in high grade. I expect it to settle in to “The Strain” type number for a #1 once the initial hype fades. Nowhere near Walking Dead 1 or even Preacher 1.

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    It would be cool to see in a month if these predictions prove true or false.

  • Eman

    I think Demo is right.
    Also, not everyone has Cinemax, so it won’t hit the masses like AMC and the Walking Dead….just my opinion.

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    not to nitpick, but 71,788 isn’t 86k

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    Great article! it great to see a projection for future price points and your reasoning behind it even if they turn out to be wrong it’s just nice to know your thought process

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    I really like Outcast but being on Cinemax is a big hill to overcome in today’s market where cord cutting and stream are what the market is trend to its one hope is if HBO can bundle it in with their HBO Now/Go service. If it can pair up with GOT it could have a fighting chance

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    Do Cinemax shows end up on Netfilx? That could give it a nice bump in the future.

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